Since I love being wrong, I am posting my guesses for tonight’s ceremony.
BEST ACTOR: I wish that Sean Penn would win for his landmark role in the inspiring film Milk, but I predict that Mickey Rourke will win for The Wrestler. That movie was the most depressing thing ever, which draws Oscar like no other. [Edit: I was never so happy to be wrong! Sean Penn won, and didn’t you love the comment about “How did Sean Penn play straight men all those years?”]
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Josh Brolin, Milk. They’ll award it to the guy playing the straight guy in the film about gay activism, mainly because everyone loved him in last year’s No Country for Old Men. [Edit: Wrong! What was I thinking? Of course, Heath Ledger would get this award. I never saw the film, so I have no opinion on his performance, but it was sad to see his family accepting the award.]
BEST ACTRESS: Kate Winslet, without a doubt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: I haven’t seen very many of these, but I am guessing Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler. [Edit: Wrong! Penelope Cruz. That’s fine, but I will say that Marisa had my favorite dress of the night.]
BEST ANIMATED FILM: Wall-E, because of its anti-Wal-Mart message.
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Slumdog Millionaire. The unforgettable images of India’s underbelly will win this.
COSTUME DESIGN: The Duchess. I mean, c’mon. It’s the only.
DIRECTING: I’m going to say Slumdog Millionaire. Yes, I am going out on a limb here (not).
MAKEUP: Why are there only three nominees? I think The Curious Case of Benjamin Button will win, but I’ll do the happy dance if Hellboy II gets it. [Edit: No happy dance here. L]
FILM EDITING: How do they even decide on this one? I mean, to truly make an informed decision, wouldn’t you have to see all the footage that was edited? I just don’t ‘get’ this award. But I’m picking The Dark Knight, ‘cause it seems like, often, one of the off-films wins this. [Edit: Wrong! Slumdog.]
BEST SCORE; Hm. This is a toughie. None of the films’ music really sticks out in my head. Wild guess? Slumdog Millionaire.
BEST SONG: There are only three nominated. Two are from Slumdog Millionaire, so that will tend to split the vote. Besides, Disney always wins this, so I’m going with Wall-E. [Edit: Wrong! Slumdog did it again, with “Jai Ho.” A friend pointed out to me that Wall-E is Pixar, not Disney. However, Pixar IS Disney. Or they’re partners. Or something. See here, it says Disney on the box.]
SOUND EDITING AND SOUND MIXING: What the hell is the difference? Only your sound man knows for sure. I’m going to guess that The Dark Knight wins for both. [Edit: I was half right. Dark Knight got Editing; Slumdog got Mixing. Can someone explain?]
VISUAL EFFECTS: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, though it doesn’t deserve it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Ooo. I would almost pick Frost/Nixon, but generally this goes to the winner of Best Film, so I must guess Slumdog Millionaire.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: In Bruges deserves to win. It was fresh, surprising, dark, witty, memorable, but the film came out so long ago that voters have probably forgotten it. I think voters will go with Milk, wanting to give it a consolation prize.
BEST PICTURE: It’s bound to be Slumdog Millionaire, but as long as ANYTHING other than The Curious Case of Benjamin Button wins, I will be content. (Dark horse possibility: Milk.)
Those are my guesses. Historically, I suck at predictions, so we’ll see.
[Edit: 6 wrong, 12 right! Not bad, at least as far as my record goes. But this was not a difficult year for guessing.]